The bullwhip effect describes a phenomenon in supply chain management. It illustrates how fluctuations in orders increase in impact as you progress along a supply chain. As unpredictable as the triggers of the bullwhip effect may seem, many can actually be identified in advance, which lets you resolve them. In this blog article, we will be looking at how to make your planning more resilient to sharp fluctuations in demand and supply shortages.
If you look at the definition and causes of the bullwhip effect in the first part of this blog series, it becomes clear that it is not necessarily sudden, unexpected events that trigger it. Instead, it tends to be a lack of transparency, a lack of communication and errors of judgement that cause orders to fluctuate. A large part of this can be targeted and counteracted by digitalisation, automation and networking measures. Let’s have a look at some ways of mitigating the bullwhip effect.
Keeping tabs on your supply and demand chains to counteract the bullwhip effect
If you are able to identify a potential bullwhip effect in your supply and demand chains, you can then take measures to resolve it.
The bullwhip effect in the supply chain
One of the biggest challenges along a supply chain is the ability to accurately predict demand and plan accordingly. The only way to do this is with close communication. The first step is to digitalise the business processes between you and your suppliers. This makes the processes more efficient and transparent, letting the retailer coordinate more quickly and easily with his suppliers if demand suddenly changes. In a company with an industry 4.0 purchasing set-up, it’s the purchasing department which takes a key role in managing customer relationships. Strong communication between purchasing, product development and product-related services is key to anticipating demand and coordinating with suppliers, and significantly contributes to avoiding or resolving a bullwhip effect. However, this intensive collaboration is only possible if you have an efficient integration platform and digital services allowing rapid provision and efficient exchange of data. This starts by automating the purchase-to-pay process and, ideally, continues throughout the entire value creation process.
Getting information flowing digitally along the whole value creation chain lets you take advantage of an approach like CPFR. Otherwise known as collaborative planning, forecast, replenishment, CPFR has grown from efficient customer response (ECR). In CPFR, information is collected from all relevant parties and made available to everyone involved. Collaborative predictions and experience play a particularly important role here. This is because data logistics optimises the value chain. Those involved in the exchange of information and joint planning include suppliers, manufacturers, trading partners (distributors, dealers) and marketers.
The bullwhip effect in the demand chain
Retailers need a holistic retail strategy to make distribution channels productive and to predict order peaks more easily. Most companies focus on the supply chain in their efforts to avoid the bullwhip effect. However, it is essential to also look at the demand chain. Meaningful, reliable information is crucial for making accurate demand forecasts. Let’s look at after sales. If you have regular accurate data on the condition of the products you’ve sold, you’re able to make a pretty accurate forecast on when a customer will need to get the product serviced, or replace a part. Digital data integration is used in this way by the car industry to remain competitive.
As illustrated above, although the supply and demand chain meet, they start from completely different places. Supply chain management usually focuses on the product itself or on manufacturing before working its way backwards to the supplier and forwards to delivery. The demand chain also has a product or service at its centre, but then works backwards to understand and integrate the needs of the target audience and forwards to distribution channels, demand generation and delivery systems. To a certain extent, the supply chain is the physical chain, while the demand chain is more based on logic.
Before you can use the demand chain to resolve a bullwhip effect, you need a good relationship with your retailers, willingness to collaborate on both sides, and point-of-sales (POS) data. There is huge potential here to improve customer satisfaction without triggering a bullwhip effect through awkward ordering behaviour. By sharing data across multiple business units, you can aggregate and analyse information on customers and their transactions. It is easier to cultivate relationships with manufacturers and suppliers, while getting closer to your customers by harnessing the power of social media. These measures all serve to not merely recognise demand, but to actively control it, and to manage your stock levels appropriately. At the same time, you are likely to recognise fluctuations in demand at an early stage. Why not realise your harmonised retail potential with API integration? APIs are hidden heroes in digital integration, getting data flowing between your systems at the speed you need, whenever you need it.
Good master data management gives you the data quality needed to counter the bullwhip effect
These days, high data quality is essential in nearly every market sector. At the core of good quality data is a well-managed database of master data. This and learning to interpret the data correctly are very effective in preventing a bullwhip effect. Data-driven forecasts help you to identify how much of what needs manufacturing or ordering at any given time. However, don’t forget that MRP parameters such as replenishment time, reorder quantities, safety stock levels or disposal procedures need to be properly reviewed and maintained. Otherwise, demand fluctuation will also be wrongly understood.
Counter the bullwhip effect with technology
A sound knowledge of the market and solid data are key components in accurately forecasting demand. Read on for some examples of how you can harness these and let cutting-edge technology give your supply chain some muscle.
Using cyber-physical systems (CPS) and IoT to counter the bullwhip effect
Cyber-physical systems (CPS) are systems consisting of information and software elements connected to mechanical components. They are a key part of industry 4.0 and the internet of things (IoT). They may contain moving or mobile devices, machines including robots, devices, embedded systems or networked objects. Data is transferred, exchanged, monitored and controlled in real time via an infrastructure such as the internet. Cyber-physical systems significantly improve the information available to the supply chain. Thanks to real-time reporting, you can see exactly where something is in the supply chain and how much is currently available.
This quality feedback loop in CPS helps reduce any potential bullwhip effect by also reducing delays and total processing time.
Cloud computing gives you the flexibility needed to quickly react to triggers
Cloud computing lets you flexibly scale your infrastructure and software for the entire supply chain. This means you can capture, process and share information in real time across the supply chain. Digitalising your supply chain end to end gives you a stream of reliable information and is a nice way of effectively reducing the bullwhip effect.
Artificial intelligence helps you identify the complex triggers behind the bullwhip effect. AI is one of the most effective and promising technologies for mitigating a bullwhip effect. It analyses data patterns and identifies known bullwhip triggers, so you and your suppliers can react more quickly.
Blockchain technology gives you the data integrity to have confidence in your forecasts
Using a blockchain makes data transparent and traceable for everybody in the network. Access to data on demand in the supply chain makes it easier for all parties to mitigate the bullwhip effect and adjust their planning. This technology gives those involved along the supply chain a direct, unaltered view of the actual order, inventory and delivery status. Blockchain reduces discrepancies in information and provides you with robust, integral data which gives you and your suppliers confidence in their processes.
The methods and technologies described above are ways to digitally transform your organisational structure for effective and visible supply chain management. Creating a meaningful information system and interconnecting all elements of the supply chain ensures a smooth flow of materials to meet actual customer needs and maximise profits. And, with the help of this article, you are now armed with various approaches to counter a bullwhip effect.
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Written by: Rolf HolickiRolf Holicki, Director BU E-Invoicing, SAP&Web Process, is responsible for the SAP/WEB applications. He has more than 25 years of experience in e-invoicing, SAP, Workflow and business process automation. Rolf Holicki has been with SEEBURGER since 2005.